Is the hottest strategy based on forecast or value

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Is strategy based on forecast or value

at present, the structure of classic strategic management textbooks begins with environmental analysis, and then there is the whole process of formulating strategic plans at all levels of the enterprise, evaluating people, selecting and implementing. Even before the environmental analysis, the company introduced the vision, mission and purpose of the enterprise and other contents related to the value judgment of the enterprise's strategic price under the influence of the lightweight trend, but did not explain the relationship between the former and the latter clearly. The relationship between the two can hardly be seen in the current domestic strategic management textbooks

when formulating strategies and carrying out strategic management, are entrepreneurs' development of enterprises based on the prediction of the future or on their own business values? Recently, I realized it after seeing the "Research on marketing model" by Professor Bao Zheng of the National People's Congress

the significance of enterprise values to enterprise strategic management is at least reflected in the following aspects:

1 First of all, the values explain the enterprise's "cause what"

2. Secondly, the values set forth the "what should a business be"

3. Thirdly, the values explain the enterprise's "what should the cause be"

in fact, this is Drucker's career theory. After explaining the above three problems. The enterprise will understand where it is now, where it can only measure the total force required for the damaged sample, and how to reach it. Specifically, it means to understand your business scope and business model, so as to restrain the impulse to simply pursue profits in the process of operating the enterprise. The market is full of opportunities. The establishment of such values will enable enterprises to correctly understand that market opportunities are not enterprise opportunities. The difference between market opportunity and enterprise opportunity is that the former exists objectively, while the latter depends on the enterprise's own resources and capabilities, and more importantly, on its own value choice

as an old proverb says, it is difficult to predict, especially when predicting the future. The prediction of facts is far more than difficult. Keynes once said: "the inevitable never happened, but the unexpected always appeared in front of the huge market opportunity.". Rousseau pointed out that it is necessary to have "the ability to foresee certain things that cannot be foreseen". In fact, Simon, a management scientist, said that the judgment of the future is based on value, not facts. Why do more and more scholars think that enterprise strategy is based on value rather than prediction? The main reason is that there are more and more uncertainties in the real environment, and people's understanding of the external environment has not improved with the improvement of people's understanding level. This environmental uncertainty is mainly caused by the following reasons:

1 The development of technology is faster and faster, and sudden changes in technology will occur at any time. This phenomenon is happening around us every day. For example, if we start from 286 computers in 1990 to today's Centrino computers, within 16 years, from -p Ⅰ -p Ⅱ -p Ⅲ - Ⅳ - Centrino, there are 9 generations. Moore's law proposed by Moore, one of the founders of Intel, is almost strictly followed

2. There are more uncertain factors behind the economic prosperity brought about by globalization. The "Butterfly Effect" profoundly illustrates this unstable situation

3. The development of market economy does not make the economy of any country get rid of the influence of government and politics, but more affected by its politics. When the political relations between countries become unpredictable due to various irrational factors, the uncertainty of the environment becomes more

4. Especially when the market competition turns from perfect competition to monopoly competition and oligopoly competition, it is difficult for us to understand what they think because each competitor is a free subject. Therefore, it is difficult to judge their behavior. As the saying goes: "a soldier is a trickster."

it is based on the judgment of this value that in the same environment, the choices of enterprises are often different, or even quite different. For example, international operation is the common understanding and collective choice of Chinese enterprises, but due to different values, the choice of business model is often different. Haier's "difficult before easy" and TCL's "easy before difficult"

similarly, due to the role of values, today's Chinese household appliance enterprises will fall into a collective dilemma and cannot extricate themselves. This time, it is due to the convergence of values of Chinese household appliance enterprises. After breaking through the price war quagmire in the ordinary color TV market, China's color TV enterprises have fallen back into a new price quagmire at a new height. The logic behind this strange circle is that all home appliance enterprises recognize that today's high price of plasma color TV is unsustainable. Why don't you lower the price first and occupy the market share, so as to win the initiative for future competition. As a result, it is this same worship of market share that results in a new price quagmire

along this view, we can see many people around us who make strategic decisions based on values

the prediction or fact of the future is obviously meaningful for strategic decision-making. The decision-making process of strategy itself is a process of information input, transformation and output. No decision can be made without information. In this sense, the "fact" obtained from the analysis of the environment is a role of obtaining information. (end)

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